Some sub industries of chemical industry have entered a new round of business cycle

Affected by factors such as rising oil prices, energy conservation and emission reduction, and increased inventories of enterprises and society, the prices of chemical products have continued to rise in a large area in recent three months. Analysts believe that the boom of the chemical industry has rebounded significantly. Although there is still some uncertainty about whether it will continue to rebound in the future, the sub industries such as potassium fertilizer, phosphorus chemical industry and polyester staple fiber have entered a new round of boom cycle, which is relatively certain, and the duration is expected to reach more than one year.

Continued large-scale price increases

Since August, the price of chemical products has continued to rise in a large area.

According to the data provided by China chemical network, there was a "high temperature" in the chemical market in August. Among the 68 chemical products under key monitoring, 43 showed rising prices and 13 remained flat, accounting for 82.35% in total; Among the 20 rubber and plastic products under key monitoring, there were 17 kinds of price increases and 2 kinds of flat ones, accounting for 95% in total.

The heat of the chemical market remained unabated in September. Among the 68 kinds of chemical products under key monitoring, there were 33 kinds of rising prices and 24 kinds of flat prices, accounting for 83.8% in total; Among the 20 kinds of rubber and plastic products under key monitoring, there are 15 kinds of rising prices and 3 kinds of holding, accounting for 90% in total.

Liu Xintian, chief editor of China Chemical Network Information Center, said that since October, chemical products have continued to rise in a large area and got rid of the downturn in May and June. Comparing the prices on October 15 with those on August 2, among the 68 chemical products under key monitoring, 57 have increased in prices and 4 have remained unchanged, accounting for 89.7% in total; Among the 20 rubber and plastic products under key monitoring, there were 18 kinds of price increases and 1 kind of flat, accounting for 95% in total.

From the situation in recent three months, the products with a price increase of more than 20% include sulfuric acid, liquid chlorine, epichlorohydrin, stearic acid, bromine, bisphenol A, cyclohexanone, n-butanol, soda ash, caustic soda, ethylene glycol, CIS butadiene rubber, styrene butadiene rubber, natural rubber, etc. Among them, sulfuric acid ranked first with an increase of 43.33%.

Comparing the price on October 15 with that at the beginning of the year, hydrofluoric acid, HFC, bisphenol A, tetrabromobisphenol A, fluorite powder, bromine, stearic acid, sulfur, ethylene glycol, hexafluoropropylene, industrial naphthalene, polysilicon, PTA, PMMA, pet, styrene butadiene rubber, etc. increased by more than 30%. Among them, hydrofluoric acid ranked first with an increase of 84%.

Industry data show that the prices of individual products are close to or record high, including phosphate rock, ABS plastics, PTA, natural rubber, bromine, BDO, etc.

Taking bromine as an example, in the first half of 2010, the global market of bromine and bromine chemical products soared driven by both cost and demand. The price of bromine was 16800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year, 18000 yuan / ton at the end of February, 18500 yuan / ton at the beginning of March, 22000 yuan / ton in the middle of August, and has hovered at the high price of 23500 yuan / ton by the beginning of September. Recently, the price has hit another record high, with the mainstream quotation in the market around 25000 yuan / ton, while the medium and long-term electronic transaction price of bromine has soared to 25300 yuan / ton again. Since the beginning of the year, the price of bromine has increased by 48.8%, up 72.41% compared with the same period last year.

At the second China bromine Industry Chain Development Summit Forum held on October 21, China chemical network analysts said that in the long run, bromine is a national strategic reserve resource. The rapid development of bromine chemical industry will increase the demand for bromine. The price of bromine still tends to rise, and relevant manufacturers such as Shandong Haihua will benefit. However, in the short term, there is a certain downward pressure on prices.

Three pushers

For the reasons for the rise in the price of chemical products, Yao Xin, a researcher at Pacific Securities, believes that it can be understood from the two main lines of rising oil prices and energy conservation and emission reduction. The former leads to rising costs and stimulates the price increase of downstream chemical products, while the latter leads to reduced supply due to the shutdown of some production capacity in the process of implementation.

Since this year, the international crude oil has maintained the trend of range shock, with the shock range between 69-89 US dollars / barrel. Although the oversupply of crude oil did not support the sharp rise of international crude oil, after entering October, crude oil futures once rose to $83 / barrel, boosted by the depreciation of the US dollar.

Analysts from China Chemical Network said that from the historical data in recent years, crude oil will roughly experience a wave of rising market from October to January of the next year. The reason is that during this period, the northern hemisphere enters winter, the demand for heating oil increases, the enthusiasm of refineries for refining is high, and the demand for crude oil has increased, but the crude oil supply has not increased accordingly. It is expected that the international crude oil shock will rise in the next three months, and the main shock range will rise to $75-90 / barrel.

Zhu Fang, deputy director of information and marketing department of China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, said that generally, as long as the oil price exceeds $80 / barrel, it can significantly stimulate the price of chemicals. Liu Xintian said that the rise in oil prices has a direct impact on organic chemicals and an indirect impact on inorganic chemicals.

In the process of energy conservation and emission reduction, due to the strong rigidity of the policy, the local government must complete it. In some places, there has been a forced shutdown of production capacity, which has also affected the chemical industry. Li Yongwu, President of China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, revealed that during the investigation in Anhui, it was found that in order to complete the task of energy conservation and emission reduction, some chemical production capacities were forcibly shut down without distinguishing between advanced and backward. Analysts said that the typical products with rising prices affected by energy conservation and emission reduction include nitrogen fertilizer, phosphoric acid, soda ash, calcium carbide, PVC and other major chemical products.

Zhu Fang also pointed out that the more critical reason for the rise in the price of chemical products is that the product price has fallen to the extent that it is difficult to continue to fall. The traders who are most sensitive to the market have seen this and began to increase inventory and promote the price rise, so as to drive downstream enterprises to replenish inventory and further increase prices.

Previously, the market was unanimously worried that overcapacity suppressed product prices, and the market remained depressed. However, "no one will do business at a loss", and the operating rate of chemical enterprises decreased, thus reversing the supply and demand pattern of the industry.

Analysts believe that traders have played a role in boosting the price rise of chemical products. When the product price rises, they can promote the further rise of the price. In turn, when the market falls, traders will also play a role in helping the fall. Liu Xintian said that traders are optimistic about next year's economic expectations, so they dare to take goods.

Focus on the sub sectors

After rising for nearly three months, the industry is not clear about the price trend of chemicals in the next step. Zhu Fang believes that from the current situation, the price of chemicals may fluctuate upward in the short term. Other analysts suggested that the situation of energy conservation and emission reduction next year will not be as tense as this year, and the closed production capacity is likely to return to work, resulting in a "blowout" of production capacity and depressing product prices.

A chemical industry analyst said that although the current upward trend of the chemical industry is relatively clear, considering the possible risks in the future, investors should focus on the sub industries that obviously enter the big business cycle, such as potash fertilizer, phosphate rock and polyester staple fiber. These industries are divided into two categories, one is a resource product itself, and the other is an alternative resource. The boom is expected to last more than one year.

Analysts believe that the potash industry may usher in a "big year" next year. Farmland can not be applied for two years after applying potassium fertilizer once. The demand for potassium fertilizer in 2009 and 2010 is not strong, so it is likely to usher in the peak demand for potassium fertilizer next year. Considering the inflation factor, the price of potash fertilizer may be increased by another 20% on the current basis. The current price of phosphate rock has increased by 20% compared with that at the beginning of the year. In addition to inflation, it is also due to the national restrictions on phosphate rock mining. Relevant companies with phosphate rock resources, such as Xingfa group, will benefit from the further rise in prices.

Because polyester staple fiber can replace cotton, the price fully benefits with the rise of cotton. An industry analyst said that polyester staple fiber has been "rotten" for many years. Now, after it gets better, it will not appear another decline in industry benefits until a large number of new production capacity are built and put into operation. Relevant listed companies Huaxi Village and Xiake environmental protection can pay attention to.